What I'm Reading This Week

The Princes of Ireland is a Micheneresqe look at several hundred years of Irish history and the first of a projected two-parter dubbed The Dublin Saga. It's an easy read and touches on all the big themes in Irish myth, legend and history, from the Celts to St. Patrick and Brian Boru to Henry VIII's treachery.

Rating: 3 Pints on the 5-pint Guiness Scale

It's A Mini-Bounce...

...but John Kerry still goes over 50 percent in a two-way matchup with President Bush coming out of the Democratic National Convention. The NEWSWEEK POLL conducted Thursday and Friday, shows Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney 52 to 44 Percent, a two-point bounce. The bounce is four points in a three-way race between Kerry (49%), Bush (42%) and Ralph Nader (3 percent).

In the two-way heat in the July 8-9 Newsweek Poll, Kerry led Bush by six points, 51 to 45 percent. In the three-way heat from that week, Kerry led Bush by 3 points, 47 to 44 percent, and Nader received 3 percent of the vote.

In polling before Kerry's speech on Thursday, he led Bush 47-45, with Nader at 2 percent. On Friday, Kerry received 50 percent to 40 for Bush and 3 for Nader.

Gallup Analysis

Political Wire points to a Gallup analysis that argues five character traits drive voters' presidential preference:

• Shares your values
• Can manage the government effectively
• Is honest and trustworthy
• Party affiliation (of respondents)
• Is a person you admire

The analysis goes on to point out that on four of the five (party affiliation being the exception), voter opinions of Bush and Kerry are virtually identical.

The least important trait in this analysis? "Has an optimistic vision for the country's future." Does this mean Kerry's call for optimism last night - and his running mate's famous sunny disposition - don't matter?

Not necessarily. In fact, in the next few weeks, it's Bush who's most likely to be touting his optimism about the future of the country - naturally so, since he's by default advocating the status quo. If voters aren't moved by the optimism argument, Kerry/Edwards might ironically be the beneficiaries of pessimism.

In an effort to get more involved in the whole blogging community, Haloscan commenting and trackback have been added to this blog.

Others on Kerry

Outside The Beltway has a roundup other opinions on the speech.

While I don't agree with James's assessment, I do enjoy this comment:

"...while I get that he's apparently basing his entire campaign on the facts that 1) he went to Vietnam and 2) he's not George W. Bush, I'm constantly bemused that a man who has been in the public spotlight for thirty-odd years wants us to think that he left Vietnam and suddenly emerged last week wanting to be president. " 
  
Kevin Drum at Washington Monthly says..."Overall, though, it was at the high end of workmanlike and did what it had to do."  He also has an open forum for other thoughts.

Thanks to Backcountry Conservative for the heads up.

Dissent in the Ranks

A Republican-near-and-dear-to-my-heart-to-remain-anonymous took issue with my praise of John Edward's speech and the theme of the Democratic Convention in general.  To wit:

"This two Americas stuff is bull.  Consider that for eight of the last twelve years, we had a Democrat president and supposedly this wonderful economic growth, and I'll give you that. I thought the middle class was doing okay. 

"The problem with the middle class is that we buy really big houses that our parents would have neverthought to buy because interest rates are so low that we can afford the 'payments.' We buy expensive cars for the same reason, so when things do go bad, and, God forbid, someone loses a job or has a major health problem, we're so strapped in debt that we have to file bankruptcy. That is the greed of the middle class,  not the fault of the politicians.

"On other issues, the USDOE under Bush spends more on education than ever before -  so what is this "two American schools" issue?  No Child Left Behind is addressing the issue and giving parents and kids the knowledge and choice to control their educational decisions, and that is what the establishment hates. 

"I can't argue too much with raising the minimum wage for certain people, although I suspect it will hurt small business and cost jobs in the long run. I think they should exempt people under 18, although that probably raises legal issues.

"Finally, what is that mole or bump on Edwards' lip. It was very distracting.  :)" 

From the For What It's Worth File...

Zogby was polling during the Democratic Convention, and the results show that Democrats have at least (temporarily) achieved one of their objectives. 

Bush's job rating is at 44 percent, the lowest since mid-May.  Poll was conducted July 26-29, so impact of Kerry's speech isn't reflected. 

In the head-to-head, Kerry leads 46-41, increasing his spread from 47-44 in early July.  Not much "bounce" but again, no reaction to the speech yet.

Kerry Reaction

On Wednesday John Edwards promised us hope was on the way, and last night John Kerry reassured us that help is coming, too.  I'm certainly not the first to point out that this was a clever slap at Dick Cheney, who used the same line in appealing to military families four years ago in his own acceptance speech.

Kerry also appropriated a Bush theme from four years ago - promising to restore trust and integrity to the White House.

Overall, I think Kerry delivered last night.  He showed passion and drew a clear distinction between himself and the idiot currently holding the office of president - damn, I forgot that civility thing already.

Everyone knows I'm more of a political junkie than a policy wonk, so I stayed up way past my bedtime to watch Frank Luntz with his focus group in Cincinnati.  I just love the instant dial doohickeys and try to talk every client I meet with into spending way more money than they need to just to use the dial thingies.

Anyway, Kerry's biggest jump in the testing came here:

"We value an America that controls its own destiny because it's finally and forever independent of Mideast oil. What does it mean for our economy and our national security when we have only 3 percent of the world's oil reserves, yet we rely on foreign countries for 53 percent of what we consume?

"I want an America that relies on its ingenuity and innovation, not the Saudi royal family."

When he hit that line about the Saudis, the measurements went off the charts.  And Michael Moore's movie isn't making a difference?

Personally, my favorite part of the speech was this:

"You see that flag up there. We call her Old Glory, the stars and stripes forever. I fought under that flag, as did so many of those people who were here tonight and all across the country. That flag flew from the gun turret right behind my head and it was shot through and through and tattered, but it never ceased to wave in the wind. It draped the caskets of men that I served with and friends I grew up with."
 
"For us, that flag is the most powerful symbol of who we are and what we believe in: our strength, our diversity, our love of country, all that makes America both great and good.  That flag doesn't belong to any president. It doesn't belong to any ideology.  It doesn't belong to any party. It belongs to all the American people. "

I'm damn tired of being looked at as some sort of subversive who hates America because I dare to disagree with George II and Prime Minister Cheney, and Kerry articulated my resentment at Republicans who impugn our patriotism as well as anyone ever has.

Full text is here for those who want to begin the critique.

Only In South Carolina Can You Find The Words "Extortion" and "Cockfighting" In the Same Sentence

From the state where the governor brought livestock into the State House comes word that the Commission of Agriculture, Republican Charles Sharpe, has been indicted for his involvement with a cockfighting ring.

According to the AP, Sharpe is accused of accepting at least $20,000 from an organization involved in breeding and raising birds for cockfighting in exchange for helping the group avoid legal trouble.  He was allegedlly working on behalf of the South Carolina Gamefowl Management Association.

The Augusta Chronicle reported on a law enforcement raid on the same facility last fall, and printed the names of 118 people arrested at the time.

Demint, Sex & The City

The state GOP is quite alarmed that Senate candidate Inez Tenenbaum has received a campaign contribution from Barbara Streisand. But a review of Republican candidate Jim Demint's SEC filings points out something that should be much more alarming to GOPpers the world over: Jim Demint has received financial support from a company that has previously employed Sarah Jessica Parker (of Sex & The City), Madonna (author of the best-selling book Sex) and dope smoker and anti-war activist Lenny Kravitz, among others.

More to come on this important developing story...

Hope Is On The Way

John Edwards gave a rousing speech tonight.  Yeah, I'm a Democrat, and yeah, my family knows a thing or two about lintheads and the mill hill, so I'm predisposed to like the guy.  But he did a remarkable job putting forth a Democratic vision for middle class America.

Other random thoughts:

• The guys on MSNBC were just talking about the fact that Edwards failed to mention God - well, damn.
• Joe Scarborough, of all people, just had a great observation about watching trial lawyers going head to head with CEOs - a pretty good image to keep in mind when Edwards and Cheney square off in a fall debate or two.
• I know people don't base their vote on vice presidential candidates - and that's a damn shame when you compare Edwards with the guy who spends most of his time in a secure, undislosed location.

 

Blogging From Boston

Bloggers have actually been credentialled at the Democratic National Convention.  Here's a pretty good overview of some of the Boston blogging.  Why didn't I think of getting a press pass?

Speaking of Razors...

According to PRWeek Gillette and convention organizers are denying rumors that all of the razors Gillette placed in the gift bags handed out to Democratic National Convention attendees were confiscated by convention security in an ill-advised product placement move.

But I gotta tell you - believe the hype about the Gillette M3 Power Razor. I plopped down $13.98 for one of these suckers and two blades, and it absolutely delivers the best shave ever.

Hogzilla

No truth to the rumors that Mark Sanford is negotiating to dig up this beast in his next effort to hogtie the General Assembly:
CNN.com - Hogzilla, the?legend grows - Jul 28, 2004

Backcountry Conservative

Backcountry Conservative takes note of Harvey Gantt's appearance at the Democratic National Convention tonight on behalf of John Edwards. Includes some interesting observations about Edwards attempt to play football at Clemson. As a Carolina fan and the husband of an N.C. State grad, I say it proves how smart Edwards is that he got out of Pickens County Tech after just one semester.

Obama Transcript

As previously promised, the full transcript of Barack Obama's fantastic keynote speech from the Democratic Convention:

CNN.com - Obama: Time to reclaim America's promise - Jul 27, 2004

Follow the Money

Cindy Scoppe's column on South Carolina's weak campaign disclosure system is right on target. It's nearly impossible for the average voter to find out who actually bought and paid for our elected officials. Scoppe points out that according to the Campaign Disclosure Project, the Palmetto $tate ranks right where we're used to when it comes the things that make our state better - the bottom: 50th in accessibility to information and Internet usability, 37th (or tied for last with 13 others) on electronic filing by candidates.

The State Ethics Commission does provide a link to some Internet information at Follow the Money. While there's very little information about the current election cycle, the 2002 data is fairly comprehensive. Some interesting facts gleaned from that information:

The State Democratic Party gave $207,000 dollars to its candidates - far less than the approximately $384,000 contributed to Republican candidates by three GOP party committees.

One of those GOP committees is the Speaker's Politically Active Citizens Committee, through which (presumably) David Wilkins doled out $84,000 to his party's House candidates - guess that explains how thoroughly he's able to "lock down" the House to beat back the cigarette tax and other stuff he opposes.

Blue Cross Blue Shield was the top giver among South Carolina businesses, handing out $115,150. Forty-four Democrats got $35,900 of that, with the remaining $79,250 going to 96 Republicans.

Random thoughts on Democratic convention

OK, I admit:

I'm watching Teresa Heinz Kerry now, just hoping she'll say something outrageous.

I loved watching Ted Kennedy while my Republican wife cringed across the room.

I switched over to Fox for a few minutes, and Newt Gingrich still makes me want to puke.

Seeing a guy like Obama serving in the state Senate in Illinois really shows how bad things are in South Carolina.

Is this guy great or what?

I've heard hundreds - probably thousands - of political speeches. Hell, I've written plenty, including a whole bunch as a volunteer speechwriter at the 2000 Democratic National Convention. But I've never heard one I've actually been moved by until tonight. Obama's keynote was simply fantastic. I can't wait to get the transcript, and I'll post that, too.

Blogging Hits Convention

Everybody has a blog these days - here's an official one from the Democratic National Convention:

bostonDparty - 2004 Democratic National Convention Blog